Santa Clara 1-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 36%, yet in-form Santa Clara provide a compelling counter-argument — this Santa Clara vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santa Clara host Boavista at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santa Clara have posted 2W 0D 1L at Estádio de São Miguel — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Boavista — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boavista's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Santa Clara have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 1, Boavista 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Boavista trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Santa Clara 50% | Boavista 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 50% | Boavista 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.12 xG and Boavista 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.824 / defence 1.049 | Boavista attack 0.933 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.174. Data: 6 Santa Clara games / 40 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 35% | Draw 29% | Boavista 36%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Boavista 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santa Clara (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boavista offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 33% | Boavista 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 35% | Draw 29% | Boavista 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Santa Clara 1.12 / Boavista 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.824 / def 1.049 | Boavista attack 0.933 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Boavista (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Boavista xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Boavista kick off?
Santa Clara vs Boavista kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Boavista?
Santa Clara 1 - 0 Boavista.
Where is Santa Clara vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Boavista part of?
Santa Clara vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 35% chance of winning, Boavista a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Santa Clara and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Boavista?
Record (4 meetings): Santa Clara 1W | Draws 1 | Boavista 2W.
What form are Santa Clara and Boavista in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Boavista (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.82x the league average against Boavista's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
35%
2.86
29%
3.50
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.27
1.15
Boavista xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.15 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara's recent record stands at 4W 0D 2L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boavista, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Santa Clara by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boavista heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Santa Clara have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boavista's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Boavista travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 0.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Early Season
Boavista
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Boavista in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Boavista have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Boavista away?
Santa Clara's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 2.00 PPG; Boavista away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Boavista in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
1
Draws
3
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Boavista?
From 6 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Boavista have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Boavista 1-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Santa Clara 33% BTTS, Boavista 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Santa Clara and 33% for Boavista.
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Boavista in 33%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 33% of games; Boavista in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 33% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santa Clara's recent games and 33% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Boavista tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Boavista in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Boavista 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Boavista 1-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.12 xG and Boavista 1.15 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Boavista landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against Boavista attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 35% | Draw 29% | Boavista 36%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 50%, Boavista 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Boavista's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.