Moreirense 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Moreirense at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Moreirense host Famalicao at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Moreirense — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 3W 2D 3L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Famalicao stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Moreirense have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Moreirense, 1 for Famalicao and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Moreirense in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Famalicao in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 44% versus Famalicao 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 50% | Famalicao 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.31 xG and Famalicao 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.973 / defence 1.207 | Famalicao attack 0.814 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.306. Data: 18 Moreirense games / 52 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 37% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 36%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Famalicao 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Moreirense at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 62% | Famalicao 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 37% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Moreirense 1.31 / Famalicao 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.973 / def 1.207 | Famalicao attack 0.814 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Famalicao xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Famalicao kick off?
Moreirense vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Famalicao?
Moreirense 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Moreirense vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Famalicao part of?
Moreirense vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 37% chance of winning, Famalicao a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Moreirense and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Famalicao?
Record (3 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 2 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Moreirense and Famalicao in?
Moreirense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Moreirense's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.63
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.59
1.28
Famalicao xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.28 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 8W 5D 5L from 18 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 6L across 18 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Moreirense on 1.61 PPG, Famalicao on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Famalicao away?
Moreirense's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.38 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Famalicao in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2022, when Famalicao won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Moreirense's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Moreirense
5
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Famalicao?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 1, Famalicao have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Famalicao 1-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 62%, Famalicao 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Moreirense) and 25% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Moreirense's recent matches and 38% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Moreirense's recent games and 25% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Famalicao tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Famalicao 1-0 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.31 xG and Famalicao 1.28 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Famalicao attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 37% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 36%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 50%, Famalicao 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.61 PPG, Famalicao 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.