Farense 1-2 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio de São Lúis plays host to Farense versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Farense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Farense haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Farense have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio de São Lúis — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Moreirense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Moreirense haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Moreirense are 0.50 PPG clear of Farense in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Farense lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Moreirense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Farense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Moreirense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 59% versus Moreirense 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 56% | Moreirense 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.30 xG and Moreirense 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.983 / defence 1.081 | Moreirense attack 0.894 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.331. Data: 34 Farense games / 34 Moreirense games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Farense 37% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 36%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Moreirense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Moreirense (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Farense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Farense 60% | Moreirense 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 37% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Farense 1.30 / Moreirense 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.983 / def 1.081 | Moreirense attack 0.894 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Farense (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Moreirense xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Moreirense kick off?
Farense vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Moreirense?
Farense 1 - 2 Moreirense.
Where is Farense vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Moreirense part of?
Farense vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 37% chance of winning, Moreirense a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Farense and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Moreirense?
Record (2 meetings): Farense 0W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 2W.
What form are Farense and Moreirense in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Farense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.98) and Moreirense's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.89x) against Farense's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.78
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Farense xG
Total xG
2.58
1.29
Moreirense xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Farense and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Farense and 1.29 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Farense have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 10W 7D 17L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. Farense haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Moreirense's form line: 16W 7D 11L from 34 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. Moreirense haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Moreirense are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Farense.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, Moreirense have gone 8W 3D 6L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Farense are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.06 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense in 29%.
Defensively: Moreirense in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Pre-Season
Moreirense
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 10W 7D 17L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Moreirense away?
Moreirense's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.29 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Farense or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Moreirense in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Farense have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Farense
1
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Moreirense?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 0, Moreirense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Moreirense 0-0 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 53%, Moreirense 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Farense) and 35% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Moreirense in 47%; Moreirense in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Farense's recent matches and 18% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Farense's recent games and 35% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Moreirense tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Moreirense defy the odds to beat Farense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Farense 1-2 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.30 xG and Moreirense 1.29 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Moreirense attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 37% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 36%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 56%, Moreirense 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Moreirense's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.