Famalicao 0-3 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Famalicao take on Portimonense.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Portimonense meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Portimonense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portimonense have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Famalicao against 1.40 for Portimonense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Portimonense — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 73% versus Portimonense 18%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 54% | Portimonense 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.88 xG and Portimonense 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.808 / defence 1.138 | Portimonense attack 0.784 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.230. Data: 11 Famalicao games / 11 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 25% | Draw 39% | Portimonense 36%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 4.00 | Draw 2.56 | Portimonense 2.78. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 80% | Portimonense 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 25% | Draw 39% | Portimonense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Famalicao 0.88 / Portimonense 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.808 / def 1.138 | Portimonense attack 0.784 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Portimonense xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Portimonense kick off?
Famalicao vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Famalicao 0 - 3 Portimonense.
Where is Famalicao vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Portimonense part of?
Famalicao vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 25% chance of winning, Portimonense a 36% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Famalicao and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Portimonense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Famalicao and Portimonense in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Portimonense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.81x the league average against Portimonense's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.78x) against Famalicao's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
4.03
39%
2.58
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.98
1.10
Portimonense xG
4.03
25%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.10 for Portimonense, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Portimonense sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Famalicao's home form reads 0W 3D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Portimonense have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.55 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.91 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Portimonense in 18%.
Defensively: Portimonense in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 0.60 PPG; Portimonense away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Portimonense in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won 0-3 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Famalicao
2
Draws
3
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 1, Portimonense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Famalicao 2-2 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Portimonense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 80%, Portimonense 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Famalicao) and 40% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Famalicao's recent matches and 20% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Famalicao's recent games and 40% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Portimonense tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Portimonense run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Famalicao 0-3 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.88 xG and Portimonense 1.10 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Famalicao fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Portimonense outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Portimonense attack 0.78 / defence 1.03, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 25% | Draw 39% | Portimonense 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 54%, Portimonense 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Portimonense's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portimonense arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.