Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Famalicao's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of GIL Vicente's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Famalicao, 1 for GIL Vicente and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 53% versus GIL Vicente 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 53% | GIL Vicente 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.41 xG and GIL Vicente 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.198 / defence 0.781 | GIL Vicente attack 1.030 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.227. Famalicao's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Famalicao games / 36 GIL Vicente games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 47% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 26%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 3.85. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 47% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Famalicao 1.41 / GIL Vicente 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.198 / def 0.781 | GIL Vicente attack 1.030 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.99
GIL Vicente xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Famalicao 0 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente part of?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 47% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Famalicao and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
Record (7 meetings): Famalicao 3W | Draws 3 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in?
Famalicao (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (1.03x) against Famalicao's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.72
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.40
0.99
GIL Vicente xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Famalicao and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.99 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 14W 11D 11L from 36 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 17L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Famalicao by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 8W 7D 3L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 5D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 14W 11D 11L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or GIL Vicente away?
Famalicao's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.72 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Famalicao or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
5
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 39%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Famalicao) and 44% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 28% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Famalicao's recent matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Famalicao's recent games and 44% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 3, as Famalicao and GIL Vicente drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.41 xG and GIL Vicente 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.4 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.20 / defence 0.78 against GIL Vicente attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 47% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 53%, GIL Vicente 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.