Famalicao 1-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Monday 13 March 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Casa Pia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Famalicao, 1.20 for Casa Pia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Famalicao 0W, Casa Pia 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Casa Pia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Famalicao 35% | Casa Pia 35%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 44% | Casa Pia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.20 xG and Casa Pia 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.821 / defence 0.813 | Casa Pia attack 0.694 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.055. Data: 57 Famalicao games / 23 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 51% | Draw 31% | Casa Pia 18%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Casa Pia 5.56. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Casa Pia's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 30% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 51% | Draw 31% | Casa Pia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 31% | xG Famalicao 1.20 / Casa Pia 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.821 / def 0.813 | Casa Pia attack 0.694 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Casa Pia xG
31%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Casa Pia kick off?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Famalicao vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Casa Pia part of?
Famalicao vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 51% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Famalicao and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in?
Famalicao (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 0.82x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.69x) against Famalicao's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
51%
1.97
31%
3.25
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.79
0.59
Casa Pia xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.59 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 8W 3D 12L from 23 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 8L across 23 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Famalicao against 1.52 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 6W 1D 4L from 11 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Famalicao are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.87 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 8W 3D 12L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Casa Pia away?
Famalicao's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.73 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Famalicao
2
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 4, Casa Pia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Casa Pia?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 27% (Famalicao) and 36% (Casa Pia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Famalicao) and 46% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Casa Pia in 36%; Famalicao have failed to score in 36% of games; Casa Pia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Famalicao's recent matches and 36% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Famalicao's recent games and 46% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Casa Pia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Casa Pia 1-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.20 xG and Casa Pia 0.59 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Casa Pia attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 51% | Draw 31% | Casa Pia 18%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 44%, Casa Pia 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Casa Pia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.17 PPG, Casa Pia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.