Famalicao 1-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Famalicao (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Famalicao face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Boavista have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boavista away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Famalicao. A 1.00 PPG lead over Boavista (1.70 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Famalicao lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Boavista 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 44% | Boavista 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.42 xG and Boavista 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.054 / defence 0.843 | Boavista attack 0.871 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.400. Data: 36 Famalicao games / 36 Boavista games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 46% | Draw 27% | Boavista 27%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Boavista 3.70. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 60% | Boavista 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 46% | Draw 27% | Boavista 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Famalicao 1.42 / Boavista 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.054 / def 0.843 | Boavista attack 0.871 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Boavista xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Boavista kick off?
Famalicao vs Boavista kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Boavista.
Where is Famalicao vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Boavista part of?
Famalicao vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 46% chance of winning, Boavista a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Famalicao and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Boavista?
Record (6 meetings): Famalicao 3W | Draws 2 | Boavista 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Boavista in?
Famalicao (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Boavista (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Famalicao's attack at 1.05x the league average against Boavista's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.87x) against Famalicao's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.75
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.45
1.03
Boavista xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.03 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Famalicao have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 12W 12D 12L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boavista's form line: 8W 11D 17L from 36 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Famalicao against 0.97 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Famalicao have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 4W 3D 11L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.11 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Boavista
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Boavista in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 12W 12D 12L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Boavista have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Boavista away?
Famalicao's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.50 PPG; Boavista away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Famalicao have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Famalicao
2
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 5, Boavista have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Boavista 0-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Boavista?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 56%, Boavista 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 50% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Boavista in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Famalicao's games and 61% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Famalicao's recent games and 50% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Boavista tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Boavista in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Boavista 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Boavista 1-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.42 xG and Boavista 1.03 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Boavista landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Boavista attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 46% | Draw 27% | Boavista 27%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 44%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Boavista's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.33 PPG, Boavista 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.