Famalicao 1-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho to face Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Famalicao against 1.20 for Arouca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Arouca, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Arouca winning.
It is worth noting that Arouca have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 46% versus Arouca 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Famalicao 49% | Arouca 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.12 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.780 / defence 0.859 | Arouca attack 1.006 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.218. Famalicao's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Famalicao games / 39 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 37% | Draw 29% | Arouca 34%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Arouca 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Arouca 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 37% | Draw 29% | Arouca 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Famalicao 1.12 / Arouca 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.780 / def 0.859 | Arouca attack 1.006 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Arouca xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Arouca kick off?
Famalicao vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Famalicao vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Arouca part of?
Famalicao vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 37% chance of winning, Arouca a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Famalicao and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
Record (4 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Arouca 3W.
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Arouca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (1.01x) against Famalicao's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.41
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.17
1.05
Arouca xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.05 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 15W 7D 17L from 39 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 11L across 39 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Famalicao against 1.54 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 10W 2D 7L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 5W 9D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.13 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Arouca in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Arouca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 15W 7D 17L in their last 39 games (1.33 PPG), while Arouca have gone 16W 12D 11L in their last 39 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Arouca away?
Famalicao's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.68 PPG; Arouca away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Arouca in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
3
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Arouca have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Arouca see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 37%, Arouca 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Famalicao and 21% for Arouca.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Arouca in 32%; Famalicao have failed to score in 32% of games; Arouca in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Famalicao's recent matches and 47% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Famalicao's recent games and 21% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Arouca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Arouca 1-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.12 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arouca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Arouca attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 37% | Draw 29% | Arouca 34%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, Arouca 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Arouca's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.33 PPG, Arouca 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.