Estrela 0-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estrela host Santa Clara at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Estrela — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estrela have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estádio José Gomes — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Santa Clara have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estrela at 1.10 PPG versus Santa Clara's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Estrela, 1 for Santa Clara and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Santa Clara winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Estrela trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Santa Clara trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 41% versus Santa Clara 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estrela 41% | Santa Clara 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.33 xG and Santa Clara 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.028 / defence 1.239 | Santa Clara attack 0.978 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.161. Data: 56 Estrela games / 22 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Santa Clara 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 60% | Santa Clara 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Estrela 1.33 / Santa Clara 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 1.028 / def 1.239 | Santa Clara attack 0.978 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Santa Clara xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Santa Clara kick off?
Estrela vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Estrela 0 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Estrela vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Santa Clara part of?
Estrela vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 35% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Estrela and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Santa Clara?
Record (1 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 0 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Estrela and Santa Clara in?
Estrela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estrela's attack at 1.03x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.80
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.74
1.41
Santa Clara xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Estrela and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Estrela and 1.41 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 5W 5D 12L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 8L across 22 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Santa Clara by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estrela heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Estrela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 5W 1D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.14 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 12W 2D 8L in their last 22 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Santa Clara away?
Santa Clara's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.40 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Estrela or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estrela and Santa Clara runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estrela's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estrela
2
Draws
1
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, Estrela have won 1, Santa Clara have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 60%, Santa Clara 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Estrela) and 40% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Estrela's games and 50% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estrela vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Estrela's recent games and 40% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estrela's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 23, as Estrela and Santa Clara drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.33 xG and Santa Clara 1.41 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estrela fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Santa Clara landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against Santa Clara attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 41%, Santa Clara 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santa Clara's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.