Estoril 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours SC Braga (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Estoril face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Estoril welcome SC Braga to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estoril stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Estoril have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, SC Braga have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SC Braga's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. SC Braga's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Estoril's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
SC Braga have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Estoril.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Estoril 1–3 SC Braga — a SC Braga win.
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SC Braga trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 47% versus SC Braga 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 48% | SC Braga 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estoril surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while SC Braga have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.61 xG and SC Braga 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.989 / defence 0.985 | SC Braga attack 1.424 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.279. SC Braga have an above-average attack rating of 1.424, which lifts their away xG to 1.79. Data: built from Estoril's last 62 games and SC Braga's last 62.
Result probabilities: Estoril 34% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 42%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.91 | Draw 4.26 | SC Braga 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and SC Braga's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estoril 40% (last 10 home games) | SC Braga 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 34% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Estoril 1.61 / SC Braga 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.989 / def 0.985 | SC Braga attack 1.424 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.79
SC Braga xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs SC Braga FAQs
What time does Estoril vs SC Braga kick off?
Estoril vs SC Braga kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Estoril 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Estoril vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs SC Braga part of?
Estoril vs SC Braga is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 34% chance of winning, SC Braga a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Estoril and SC Braga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estoril vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.99) and SC Braga's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 62 games and SC Braga's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
34%
2.91
23%
4.26
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.41
1.79
SC Braga xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.49
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs SC Braga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Estoril and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Estoril and 1.79 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estoril's recent record stands at 18W 10D 34L from 62 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 42W 8D 12L across 62 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 14W 3D 14L from their last 31 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Braga's away record stands at 21W 3D 7L across their last 31 away games, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estoril are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.18 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
Estoril (Home) vs SC Braga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
❓ Estoril vs SC Braga Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 18W 10D 34L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 42W 8D 12L in their last 62 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.45 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Estoril or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SC Braga in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Apr 2023, when SC Braga won SC Braga 4-1 Estoril.
Estoril's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
6
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs SC Braga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and SC Braga?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 1, SC Braga have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and SC Braga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: SC Braga 1-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 39%, SC Braga 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Estoril and 74% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; SC Braga in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs SC Braga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and SC Braga matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Estoril's recent matches and 55% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and SC Braga matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Estoril's matches and 74% of SC Braga's.
Do Estoril and SC Braga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Estoril's recent matches and 74% of SC Braga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Estoril 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Estoril 0-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.61 xG and SC Braga 1.79 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estoril fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against SC Braga attack 1.42 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 34% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 42%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 48%, SC Braga 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 29
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →