Vizela 0-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vizela vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Chaves travel to Estádio Do Vizela to take on Vizela. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024, 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Vizela — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Do Vizela, Vizela have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chaves's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vizela at 0.80 PPG versus Chaves's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vizela, 1 for Chaves and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Chaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vizela trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Chaves trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 45% versus Chaves 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 48% | Chaves 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.16 xG and Chaves 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.820 / defence 1.473 | Chaves attack 0.666 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.276. Data: 62 Vizela games / 62 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 34% | Draw 28% | Chaves 38%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Chaves 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 50% | Chaves 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 34% | Draw 28% | Chaves 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Vizela 1.16 / Chaves 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.820 / def 1.473 | Chaves attack 0.666 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Chaves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Chaves xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Chaves kick off?
Vizela vs Chaves kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Chaves?
Vizela 0 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Vizela vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Chaves part of?
Vizela vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 34% chance of winning, Chaves a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vizela and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Chaves?
Record (3 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 2 | Chaves 1W.
What form are Vizela and Chaves in?
Vizela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Chaves (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vizela's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Chaves's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
34%
2.98
28%
3.51
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.41
1.25
Chaves xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vizela and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Vizela and 1.25 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Vizela have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 15W 16D 31L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Chaves's form line: 16W 17D 29L from 62 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vizela on 0.98 PPG, Chaves on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vizela have posted 0.94 PPG from 31 outings (7W 8D 16L).
On the road, Chaves have gone 7W 9D 15L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Vizela are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Current Season
Chaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Chaves in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 15W 16D 31L in their last 62 games (0.98 PPG), while Chaves have gone 16W 17D 29L in their last 62 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Chaves away?
Chaves's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 0.94 PPG; Chaves away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vizela and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chaves have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vizela's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vizela
2
Draws
2
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Chaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when Vizela 0-1 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Chaves?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Chaves see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 45%, Chaves 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Vizela) and 39% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 42% of games; Chaves in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Vizela's recent matches and 39% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Vizela's recent games and 39% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Chaves tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chaves in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chaves edge out Vizela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Vizela 0-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.16 xG and Chaves 1.25 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vizela fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.82 / defence 1.47 against Chaves attack 0.67 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 34% | Draw 28% | Chaves 38%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 48%, Chaves 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chaves's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 0.98 PPG, Chaves 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Chaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.