Estoril 1-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 39%, yet in-form Famalicao provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estoril vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 7 August 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estoril haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Famalicao haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Famalicao away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Famalicao are 1.40 PPG clear of Estoril in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Estoril 3W, Famalicao 5W, 1D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 59% versus Famalicao 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 62% | Famalicao 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.33 xG and Famalicao 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.989 / defence 1.138 | Famalicao attack 0.948 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.127. Data: 34 Estoril games / 34 Famalicao games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 34%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Famalicao (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 70% | Famalicao 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Estoril 1.33 / Famalicao 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.989 / def 1.138 | Famalicao attack 0.948 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Estoril (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Famalicao xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Famalicao kick off?
Estoril vs Famalicao kicked off at 19:15 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Estoril 1 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Estoril vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Famalicao part of?
Estoril vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 39% chance of winning, Famalicao a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estoril and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
Record (9 meetings): Estoril 3W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 5W.
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Estoril (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.99) and Famalicao's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.95x) against Estoril's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
39%
2.53
27%
3.76
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.55
1.22
Famalicao xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Estoril and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Estoril and 1.22 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. Estoril haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 8L across 34 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. Famalicao haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Famalicao by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 6W 7D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.24 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Pre-Season
Famalicao
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 15W 11D 8L in their last 34 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Famalicao away?
Famalicao's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.35 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Estoril or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Famalicao in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Estoril
2
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Famalicao have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 71%, Famalicao 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Estoril) and 29% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Famalicao in 41%; Famalicao in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Estoril's recent matches and 35% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Estoril's recent games and 29% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Famalicao tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 41% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and Famalicao finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.33 xG and Famalicao 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Famalicao attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 39% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 34%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 62%, Famalicao 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.