Estoril 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Estoril welcome Benfica to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benfica — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Estoril.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Benfica trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus Benfica 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estoril 65% | Benfica 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.01 xG and Benfica 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.968 / defence 1.155 | Benfica attack 1.574 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.211. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.574 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Estoril games / 65 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 16% | Draw 19% | Benfica 64%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 6.25 | Draw 5.26 | Benfica 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 60% | Benfica 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 16% | Draw 19% | Benfica 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Estoril 1.01 / Benfica 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.968 / def 1.155 | Benfica attack 1.574 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Benfica (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Estoril 1 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 16% chance of winning, Benfica a 64% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 6W.
What form are Estoril and Benfica in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.97) and Benfica's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
16%
6.14
19%
5.15
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.22
2.20
Benfica xG
6.14
16%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
11%
9.04
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
2%
55.51
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Estoril and 2.20 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 20W 15D 30L from 65 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 49W 8D 8L across 65 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 14W 5D 13L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 20W 5D 7L across 32 trips, a 2.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.42 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 20W 15D 30L in their last 65 games (1.15 PPG), while Benfica have gone 49W 8D 8L in their last 65 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.47 PPG; Benfica away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Benfica in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 44%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Estoril) and 56% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Benfica in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Estoril's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Estoril's matches and 56% of Benfica's.
Do Estoril and Benfica tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Benfica in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estoril 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 1-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.01 xG and Benfica 2.20 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Benfica attack 1.57 / defence 0.81, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 16% | Draw 19% | Benfica 64%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 65%, Benfica 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.