Estoril 1-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estoril face Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
Estoril's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Estoril's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Arouca (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Arouca's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Arouca edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Estoril 3–4 Arouca — a Arouca win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 43% versus Arouca 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 47% | Arouca 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.87 xG and Arouca 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.350 / defence 0.935 | Arouca attack 1.202 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.302. Estoril carry an above-average attack rating of 1.350 — their 1.87 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Arouca have an above-average attack rating of 1.202, which lifts their away xG to 1.46. Data: built from Estoril's last 51 games and Arouca's last 51.
Result probabilities: Estoril 47% | Draw 23% | Arouca 30%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Arouca 3.34. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and Arouca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estoril 40% (last 10 home games) | Arouca 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 47% | Draw 23% | Arouca 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Estoril 1.87 / Arouca 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.350 / def 0.935 | Arouca attack 1.202 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Estoril (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Arouca xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Arouca FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Arouca kick off?
Estoril vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril 1 - 2 Arouca.
Where is Estoril vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Arouca part of?
Estoril vs Arouca is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 47% chance of winning, Arouca a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Estoril and Arouca will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estoril vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estoril's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (1.20x) against Estoril's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 51 games and Arouca's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.35
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.33
1.46
Arouca xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
5%
21.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Arouca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Estoril and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Estoril and 1.46 for Arouca, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 7D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Arouca sit at 1.37 PPG from 51 outings (19W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Estoril against 1.37 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 11W 3D 11L across their last 25 home games, a 1.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arouca have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.16 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Arouca
Blended
Estoril (Home) vs Arouca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Estoril vs Arouca Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Arouca in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 15W 7D 29L in their last 51 games (1.02 PPG), while Arouca have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Arouca away?
Estoril's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.44 PPG; Arouca away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Estoril or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Arouca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won Estoril 4-1 Arouca on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Estoril
2
Draws
5
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Arouca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Arouca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 3, Arouca have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Arouca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Estoril 0-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 36%, Arouca 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estoril) and 32% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 28% of games; Arouca in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Arouca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Arouca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Estoril's recent matches and 48% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Arouca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Estoril's recent games and 32% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Arouca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Estoril's recent matches and 60% of Arouca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Estoril 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Estoril 1-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.87 xG and Arouca 1.46 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estoril fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.35 / defence 0.94 against Arouca attack 1.20 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 47% | Draw 23% | Arouca 30%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 47%, Arouca 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.02 PPG, Arouca 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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