Belenenses 2-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Belenenses take on Santa Clara.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nacional plays host to Belenenses versus Santa Clara in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Belenenses (all games): 0W 5D 4L across 9 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.56 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses at Estádio Nacional this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Santa Clara's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.56 for Belenenses, 0.67 for Santa Clara — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Belenenses — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Santa Clara — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Belenenses 44% versus Santa Clara 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Belenenses 22% | Santa Clara 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 1.07 xG and Santa Clara 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.779 / defence 1.314 | Santa Clara attack 0.704 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.167. Belenenses's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.460 — this is suppressing Belenenses's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Belenenses games / 9 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 31% | Draw 38% | Santa Clara 32%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Santa Clara 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Belenenses 75% | Santa Clara 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 31% | Draw 38% | Santa Clara 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Belenenses 1.07 / Santa Clara 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.779 / def 1.314 | Santa Clara attack 0.704 / def 1.460 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Santa Clara xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Santa Clara kick off?
Belenenses vs Santa Clara kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Santa Clara?
Belenenses 2 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Belenenses vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Belenenses vs Santa Clara part of?
Belenenses vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 31% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Belenenses and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Santa Clara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and Santa Clara in?
Belenenses (all comps): 0W-5D-4L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Belenenses's attack rating (0.78) and Santa Clara's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santa Clara's attack (0.70x) against Belenenses's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
38%
2.66
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.15
1.08
Santa Clara xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.08 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Belenenses come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 5D 4L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.56 PPG for Belenenses against 0.67 for Santa Clara. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Belenenses's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Attack vs Defence
Belenenses are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 0W 5D 4L in their last 9 games (0.56 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Santa Clara away?
Belenenses's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 0.50 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Belenenses
1
Draws
0
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Santa Clara?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 1, Santa Clara have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Santa Clara 0-0 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Santa Clara?
Belenenses have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Belenenses 75%, Santa Clara 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Belenenses) and 50% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Santa Clara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Belenenses's games and 50% of Santa Clara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Belenenses's recent games and 50% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Belenenses and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Belenenses defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Belenenses beat Santa Clara 2-1 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 1.07 xG and Santa Clara 1.08 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Belenenses beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.78 / defence 1.31 against Santa Clara attack 0.70 / defence 1.46, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 31% | Draw 38% | Santa Clara 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Belenenses win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 22%, Santa Clara 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Santa Clara's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Belenenses 0.56 PPG, Santa Clara 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Belenenses win broke the near-deadlock. Belenenses (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.