Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 46%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Jagiellonia — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Jagiellonia have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Jagiellonia's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Zaglebie Lubin's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Jagiellonia have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Zaglebie Lubin.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Jagiellonia have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Jagiellonia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 42% | Jagiellonia 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zaglebie Lubin surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.37 xG and Jagiellonia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.836 / defence 0.787 | Jagiellonia attack 1.076 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.157. Zaglebie Lubin have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Jagiellonia's projected output down. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 45 games and Jagiellonia's last 45.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 27%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.18 | Draw 3.66 | Jagiellonia 3.73. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 40% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.37 / Jagiellonia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.836 / def 0.787 | Jagiellonia attack 1.076 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 3 Jagiellonia.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 12) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 46% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.84) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 45 games and Jagiellonia's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.66
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.35
0.98
Jagiellonia xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.98 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 10D 18L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.89 PPG from 45 outings (25W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 22 away games (9W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 25W 10D 10L in their last 45 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.64 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
3
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Jagiellonia 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 73% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 73% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 73% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 86% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.37 xG and Jagiellonia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.79 against Jagiellonia attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 27%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 42%, Jagiellonia 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.