Radomiak Radom 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Monday 21 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 48% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 54% | Puszcza Niepołomice 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.48 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.138 / defence 1.171 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.689 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.162. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 45 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.48 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.138 / def 1.171 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.689 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 50% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 2 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.14) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.69x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.81
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.42
0.94
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.94 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 13W 8D 23L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 10W 18D 16L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.09 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 7D 12L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 10W 18D 16L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.10 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 62%, Puszcza Niepołomice 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Radomiak Radom) and 24% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 29% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 43% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 24% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.48 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.94 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.14 / defence 1.17 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.69 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 54%, Puszcza Niepołomice 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.07 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.