Wisla Plock 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Orlen Stadion plays host to Wisla Plock versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 25 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 2.60 PPG across 5 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Orlen Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Wisla Plock's 2.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Zaglebie Lubin's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Wisla Plock 2W, Zaglebie Lubin 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 40% and Zaglebie Lubin 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 20% | Zaglebie Lubin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.52 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.990 / defence 0.745 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.926 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.227. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 5 Wisla Plock games / 38 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 52% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.00. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 0% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 52% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Wisla Plock 1.52 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.990 / def 0.745 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.926 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Zaglebie Lubin xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Wisla Plock 2 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 52% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.99x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.93x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.67
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.37
0.85
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.44
4%
22.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.85 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 4W 1D 0L from 5 games, a 2.60 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zaglebie Lubin heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Zaglebie Lubin's attacking output running into Wisla Plock's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Zaglebie Lubin in 80%.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 40%, Zaglebie Lubin 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Wisla Plock) and 60% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Wisla Plock's games and 80% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.52 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.85 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 52% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 20%, Zaglebie Lubin 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Zaglebie Lubin managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.