Widzew Łódź 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.60 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Piast Gliwice 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 64% versus Piast Gliwice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 52% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.004 / defence 1.034 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.936 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.035. Data: 42 Widzew Łódź games / 42 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 29%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Piast Gliwice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Piast Gliwice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.27 / Piast Gliwice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.004 / def 1.034 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.936 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 43% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Record (4 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.51
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.00 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 16W 10D 16L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 13W 19D 10L from 42 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.38 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (11W 2D 7L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 9D 7L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 19D 10L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.75 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 6, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Widzew Łódź) and 25% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 29%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 52%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.38 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.