Warta Poznań 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 36%, yet in-form Widzew Łódź provide a compelling counter-argument — this Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Respect Energy plays host to Warta Poznań versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Warta Poznań have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Widzew Łódź are 0.80 PPG clear of Warta Poznań over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Warta Poznań edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Warta Poznań 1–0 Widzew Łódź — a Warta Poznań win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 39% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 31% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.31 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.924 / defence 0.963 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.112 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.160. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 64 games and Widzew Łódź's last 64.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 36% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 34%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.74 | Draw 3.33 | Widzew Łódź 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 50% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 36% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Warta Poznań 1.31 / Widzew Łódź 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.924 / def 0.963 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.112 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź FAQs
What time does Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Warta Poznań 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 31) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 36% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.92x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.11x) against Warta Poznań's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Warta Poznań's last 64 games and Widzew Łódź's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.33
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.55
1.24
Widzew Łódź xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.24 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 19D 25L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 23W 14D 27L from 64 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.30 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 32 home games (9W 12D 11L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 9W 11D 12L from their last 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.20 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Warta Poznań (Home) vs Widzew Łódź (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź Form FAQs
What form are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.22 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Warta Poznań have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
0
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Warta Poznań have won 3, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: Warta Poznań 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 47%, Widzew Łódź 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Warta Poznań) and 44% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 56% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 44% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 56% of Widzew Łódź's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Warta Poznań edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.31 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 36% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 34%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.23 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.