Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Piast Gliwice face Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Warta Poznań at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 26 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Piast Gliwice's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Warta Poznań — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Warta Poznań's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.50 (Warta Poznań). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Warta Poznań 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Piast Gliwice 1–1 Warta Poznań — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Warta Poznań 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 32% | Warta Poznań 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.40 xG and Warta Poznań 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.987 / defence 1.000 | Warta Poznań attack 0.893 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.118. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 63 games and Warta Poznań's last 63.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.26 | Draw 3.24 | Warta Poznań 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 40% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Piast Gliwice 1.40 / Warta Poznań 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.987 / def 1.000 | Warta Poznań attack 0.893 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Warta Poznań xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 30) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 44% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 63 games and Warta Poznań's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.24
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.39
1.00
Warta Poznań xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.00 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 21W 22D 20L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 20W 19D 24L from 63 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.35 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 31 home games (11W 10D 10L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 11W 7D 13L from their last 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.08 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 20W 19D 24L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Warta Poznań away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.39 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2024: Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 48%, Warta Poznań 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Piast Gliwice) and 32% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 39%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 32% of games; Warta Poznań in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 32% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 32% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 64% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Warta Poznań 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.40 xG and Warta Poznań 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Warta Poznań landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Warta Poznań attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Warta Poznań 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.35 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.