Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Gornik Zabrze — this Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw host Gornik Zabrze at Tarczyński Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Slask Wroclaw — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slask Wroclaw's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gornik Zabrze's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slask Wroclaw at 0.70 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Gornik Zabrze have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Slask Wroclaw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Slask Wroclaw 0–2 Gornik Zabrze — a Gornik Zabrze win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Gornik Zabrze have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 53% versus Gornik Zabrze 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 47% | Gornik Zabrze 47%). Note also that Gornik Zabrze surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Slask Wroclaw recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.26 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.963 / defence 1.040 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.010 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.195. Data: built from Slask Wroclaw's last 47 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 48.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 37%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.74 | Draw 3.71 | Gornik Zabrze 2.74. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Slask Wroclaw 37% and Gornik Zabrze 37%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slask Wroclaw 70% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 15 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.26 / Gornik Zabrze 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.963 / def 1.040 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.010 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gornik Zabrze xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 15) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slask Wroclaw's last 47 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
37%
2.74
27%
3.71
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.51
1.25
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.25 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 19W 15D 13L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 20W 11D 16L from 47 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.53 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 5D 10L from their last 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.34 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Slask Wroclaw (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 15D 13L in their last 47 games (1.53 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.65 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Oct 2022, when Slask Wroclaw won Slask Wroclaw 4-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
1
Draws
7
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 61%, Gornik Zabrze 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Slask Wroclaw) and 56% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 65% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 78% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.26 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 37% | Draw 27% | Gornik Zabrze 37%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gornik Zabrze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 47%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.53 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.