Piast Gliwice 2-3 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Motor Lublin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 November 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Motor Lublin have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Motor Lublin have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Piast Gliwice 1.20 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Motor Lublin in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 43% versus Motor Lublin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 21% | Motor Lublin 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.05 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.955 / defence 1.038 | Motor Lublin attack 0.989 / defence 1.414. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.180. Motor Lublin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.414 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Piast Gliwice games / 14 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 57% | Draw 21% | Motor Lublin 22%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Motor Lublin 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 40% | Motor Lublin 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 57% | Draw 21% | Motor Lublin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Piast Gliwice 2.05 / Motor Lublin 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.955 / def 1.038 | Motor Lublin attack 0.989 / def 1.414 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Motor Lublin xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 3 Motor Lublin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 57% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Motor Lublin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.95) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
57%
1.77
21%
4.72
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.26
1.21
Motor Lublin xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
34.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.21 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 6L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.43 PPG, Motor Lublin on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Motor Lublin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.50 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Piast Gliwice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Motor Lublin specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
2
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Motor Lublin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-2 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Motor Lublin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 50%, Motor Lublin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Motor Lublin in 33%; Motor Lublin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 50% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Piast Gliwice 2-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 2.05 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Motor Lublin attack 0.99 / defence 1.41, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 57% | Draw 21% | Motor Lublin 22%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 21%, Motor Lublin 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.43 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.