Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.60 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Raków Częstochowa lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Legia Warszawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 49% | Legia Warszawa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.72 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.240 / defence 0.832 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.180 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.077. Data: 61 Raków Częstochowa games / 61 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 51% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 4.76. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Legia Warszawa 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 51% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.72 / Legia Warszawa 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.240 / def 0.832 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.180 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Legia Warszawa xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 51% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Record (5 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.24x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.18x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.54
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.78
1.06
Legia Warszawa xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
4%
26.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.06 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 35W 15D 11L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 31W 18D 12L from 61 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.82 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.50 PPG from 30 outings (23W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 12W 8D 10L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.62 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 35W 15D 11L in their last 61 games (1.97 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 31W 18D 12L in their last 61 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.50 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
4
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 37%, Legia Warszawa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Raków Częstochowa) and 43% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 43% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 28, as Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.72 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.06 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.24 / defence 0.83 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 51% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 49%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.97 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.