Gornik Zabrze 2-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gornik Zabrze welcome Slask Wroclaw to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gornik Zabrze's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 1 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Slask Wroclaw — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 54% versus Slask Wroclaw 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Slask Wroclaw 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.34 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.995 / defence 0.977 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.069 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.104. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 61 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 61.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 38% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 29%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.60 | Draw 3.09 | Slask Wroclaw 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 40% (last 10 home games) | Slask Wroclaw 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 38% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.34 / Slask Wroclaw 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.995 / def 0.977 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.069 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?
Gornik Zabrze 2 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 38% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.99x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 61 games and Slask Wroclaw's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.09
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.50
1.15
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.15 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 15D 21L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.44 PPG from 61 outings (23W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.48 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 13W 8D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 9D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.20 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Slask Wroclaw (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 25W 15D 21L in their last 61 games (1.48 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 23W 19D 19L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.57 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Oct 2022, when Slask Wroclaw won Slask Wroclaw 4-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 7, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 47%, Slask Wroclaw 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gornik Zabrze) and 37% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 33%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 37% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Slask Wroclaw matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 63% of Slask Wroclaw's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Slask Wroclaw 2-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.34 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.15 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 38% | Draw 32% | Slask Wroclaw 29%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Slask Wroclaw 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.