Radomiak Radom 2-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face Lechia Gdansk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Radomiaka to take on Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 14 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Lechia Gdansk 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Radomiak Radom 0–1 Lechia Gdansk — a Lechia Gdansk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Lechia Gdansk 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 58% | Lechia Gdansk 50%). Note also that Lechia Gdansk surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Radomiak Radom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.79 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.019 / defence 1.003 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.021 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.186. Lechia Gdansk's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 58 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 24.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.96 | Draw 4.31 | Lechia Gdansk 3.86. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 70% (last 10 home games) | Lechia Gdansk 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.79 / Lechia Gdansk 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.019 / def 1.003 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.021 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lechia Gdansk xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 14 March 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 51% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.02x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 58 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.31
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.01
1.21
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
4%
23.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.21 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 4D 12L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 0.88 PPG from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across their last 12 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.04 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lechia Gdansk in 62%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Lechia Gdansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.33 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 4 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Radomiak Radom have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won Radomiak Radom 4-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
1
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 6, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2026: Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 75%, Lechia Gdansk at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 67% (Lechia Gdansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Radomiak Radom's games and 83% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 67% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 83% of Lechia Gdansk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.79 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.21 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.02 / defence 1.29, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 58%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.17 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.