Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lechia Gdansk face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jagiellonia travel to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lechia Gdansk stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lechia Gdansk's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jagiellonia have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jagiellonia are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Jagiellonia have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Lechia Gdansk.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Lechia Gdansk 2–3 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Jagiellonia have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 64% and Jagiellonia 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 52% | Jagiellonia 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lechia Gdansk surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.647 / defence 1.183 | Jagiellonia attack 1.038 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.195. Lechia Gdansk's attack rating of 0.647 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 25 games and Jagiellonia's last 59.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 22% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 51%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 4.48 | Draw 3.77 | Jagiellonia 1.95. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 40% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 22% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.87 / Jagiellonia 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.647 / def 1.183 | Jagiellonia attack 1.038 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Jagiellonia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 22% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.65) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 25 games and Jagiellonia's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
22%
4.48
27%
3.77
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.34
1.47
Jagiellonia xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
5%
19.44
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.47 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 6D 14L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (15W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 3W 2D 7L across their last 12 home games, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.75 points per game from their last 12 away games (6W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.88 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jagiellonia in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 15W 6D 4L in their last 25 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 0.92 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 42%, Jagiellonia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lechia Gdansk) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 33%; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 58% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 92% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Jagiellonia 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.47 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.65 / defence 1.18 against Jagiellonia attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 22% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 51%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.