Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Braci Czachorów plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Radomiak Radom's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Korona Kielce's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Korona Kielce in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Radomiak Radom 2W, Korona Kielce 4W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Korona Kielce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Korona Kielce 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 66% | Korona Kielce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.68 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.274 / defence 0.854 | Korona Kielce attack 1.040 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.188. Radomiak Radom carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Radomiak Radom games / 54 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 23%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Korona Kielce 4.35. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Korona Kielce lead the H2H ledger, but Radomiak Radom carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Korona Kielce 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.68 / Korona Kielce 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.274 / def 0.854 | Korona Kielce attack 1.040 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 51% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Record (7 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 4W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (1.04x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.91
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.74
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.05 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 14D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.36 PPG from 53 outings (18W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.36 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.19 points per game from 26 outings (6W 13D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.15 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 18W 18D 17L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Korona Kielce away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.65 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Radomiak Radom, 65% for Korona Kielce — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Radomiak Radom) and 31% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Radomiak Radom's games and 65% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 31% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.68 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.27 / defence 0.85 against Korona Kielce attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 23%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 66%, Korona Kielce 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.28 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.