Radomiak Radom 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face Gornik Zabrze.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Radomiak Radom's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Gornik Zabrze and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Radomiak Radom 2–0 Gornik Zabrze — a Radomiak Radom win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 39% versus Gornik Zabrze 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 39% | Gornik Zabrze 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.823 / defence 0.893 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.053 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.267. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 51 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 51.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 32% | Gornik Zabrze 35%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.96 | Draw 3.15 | Gornik Zabrze 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 32% | Gornik Zabrze 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.17 / Gornik Zabrze 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.823 / def 0.893 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.053 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Gornik Zabrze xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 18) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 34% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.82) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.05x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 51 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.15
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.37
1.19
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.19 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 18W 12D 21L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 19W 13D 19L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.37 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 25 home games (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 6D 11L from their last 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Gornik Zabrze's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.12 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won Radomiak Radom 4-0 Gornik Zabrze on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 40%, Gornik Zabrze 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Radomiak Radom) and 48% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 48% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 80% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 18, as Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.17 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 34% | Draw 32% | Gornik Zabrze 35%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 39%, Gornik Zabrze 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.29 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.