Lech Poznan 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lech Poznan face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice meet at Enea Stadion in Ekstraklasa (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Lech Poznan's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Lech Poznan have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 8D 1L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Piast Gliwice's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 9D 1L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Lech Poznan's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lech Poznan's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) — Lech Poznan have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Piast Gliwice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Lech Poznan have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Piast Gliwice managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Lech Poznan 2–1 Piast Gliwice — a Lech Poznan win.
The head-to-head data gives Lech Poznan an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Lech Poznan — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 52% versus Piast Gliwice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lech Poznan 50% | Piast Gliwice 26%). Note also that Piast Gliwice surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Lech Poznan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.53 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.289 / defence 1.029 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.856 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.259. Lech Poznan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.289 — their 1.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lech Poznan's last 51 games and Piast Gliwice's last 50.
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 45% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.23 | Draw 3.35 | Piast Gliwice 3.94. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lech Poznan 70% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 18 | Venue: Enea Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 45% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Lech Poznan 1.53 / Piast Gliwice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.289 / def 1.029 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.856 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Enea Stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
Lech Poznan 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Enea Stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 18) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 45% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lech Poznan's attack at 1.29x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.86x) against Lech Poznan's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Lech Poznan's last 51 games and Piast Gliwice's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.35
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.64
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.11 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lech Poznan come into this having played 50 games, going 26W 15D 9L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.36 PPG from 50 outings (16W 20D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lech Poznan's home form reads 15W 4D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 12D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.02 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Lech Poznan (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lech Poznan
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 26W 15D 9L in their last 50 games (1.86 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 20D 14L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.96 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lech Poznan have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 3-0 Piast Gliwice on 15 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lech Poznan have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lech Poznan
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lech Poznan have won 6, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Lech Poznan 3-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 48%, Piast Gliwice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 52% for Lech Poznan and 16% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 36%; Piast Gliwice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 44% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 16% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 64% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Lech Poznan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Lech Poznan 0-1 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.53 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lech Poznan fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 45% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 50%, Piast Gliwice 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.