Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 45%, yet in-form Slask Wroclaw provide a compelling counter-argument — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 34 as Puszcza Niepołomice welcome Slask Wroclaw to Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slask Wroclaw are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 58% versus Slask Wroclaw 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Slask Wroclaw 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 2.05 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.099 / defence 1.407 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.003 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: 67 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 67 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 45% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 34%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | Slask Wroclaw 2.94. Puszcza Niepołomice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Puszcza Niepołomice at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slask Wroclaw (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 70% | Slask Wroclaw 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 45% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 2.05 / Slask Wroclaw 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.099 / def 1.407 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.003 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Slask Wroclaw xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 45% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 34% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (3 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 1W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 1.10x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
45%
2.22
21%
4.71
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
3.80
1.75
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
4%
23.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.75 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Puszcza Niepołomice have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 15W 22D 30L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 24W 20D 23L from 67 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (11W 14D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 11W 9D 13L from 33 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.30 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 15W 22D 30L in their last 67 games (1.00 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 24W 20D 23L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.42 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
2
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 70%, Slask Wroclaw 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 48% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 48% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 48% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 34, as Puszcza Niepołomice and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 2.05 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.75 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.10 / defence 1.41 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 45% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 34%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 42%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.