Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Piast Gliwice and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 58% | Piast Gliwice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.43 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.462 / defence 1.184 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.818 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.066. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Pogon Szczecin games / 62 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 67% | Draw 20% | Piast Gliwice 13%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Piast Gliwice 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Piast Gliwice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 67% | Draw 20% | Piast Gliwice 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 60% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.43 / Piast Gliwice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.462 / def 1.184 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.818 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Piast Gliwice xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 67% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Record (5 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.43. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
67%
1.50
20%
4.92
13%
7.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.46
1.03
Piast Gliwice xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
7.72
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
9%
11.35
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
1%
87.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.03 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 31W 14D 17L from 62 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 20W 22D 20L across 62 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 17W 6D 8L from 31 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 9W 12D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.05 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 31W 14D 17L in their last 62 games (1.73 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 20W 22D 20L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.84 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 64%, Piast Gliwice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Pogon Szczecin) and 23% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 32%; Piast Gliwice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 42% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 23% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Pogon Szczecin 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.43 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.03 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.46 / defence 1.18 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 67% | Draw 20% | Piast Gliwice 13%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 58%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.