Pogon Szczecin 3-4 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 0.90 (Lechia Gdansk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Pogon Szczecin have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Lechia Gdansk have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 45% versus Lechia Gdansk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Lechia Gdansk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.40 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.195 / defence 1.002 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.025 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.158. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Pogon Szczecin games / 42 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 17%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Lechia Gdansk 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 30% | Lechia Gdansk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 63% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.40 / Lechia Gdansk 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.195 / def 1.002 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.025 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Lechia Gdansk xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 4 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 64% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (6 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 2 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
64%
1.56
18%
5.43
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.59
1.19
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
9%
11.00
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
2%
63.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.19 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 20W 8D 14L from 42 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 21L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lechia Gdansk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 15W 2D 3L from 20 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 3W 5D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.38 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 64%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.35 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 30%, Lechia Gdansk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Pogon Szczecin and 70% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 75% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 70% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Pogon Szczecin 3-4 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.40 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.19 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.20 / defence 1.00 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.02 / defence 1.34, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 17%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Lechia Gdansk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.