Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 71% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Pogon Szczecin) versus 1.50 (Lechia Gdansk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Pogon Szczecin have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Lechia Gdansk have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The historical record gives Pogon Szczecin a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 38% versus Lechia Gdansk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Lechia Gdansk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.34 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.338 / defence 0.747 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.898 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.263. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Pogon Szczecin games / 32 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 71% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 12%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Lechia Gdansk 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 30% | Lechia Gdansk 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 71% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 52% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.34 / Lechia Gdansk 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.338 / def 0.747 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.898 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Lechia Gdansk xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 3 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 71% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (5 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 1 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.69
12%
8.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.19
0.85
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
8.53
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
10%
10.42
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
1%
88.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.85 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 17W 5D 10L from 32 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 16L across 32 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lechia Gdansk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 13W 1D 2L from 16 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.22 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 62%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 17W 5D 10L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 10W 6D 16L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.50 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 25%, Lechia Gdansk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pogon Szczecin) and 62% (Lechia Gdansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 75% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 62% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 33, as Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.34 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.85 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 71% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 12%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Lechia Gdansk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.