Motor Lublin 3-4 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź meet at Arena Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Motor Lublin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Lublin, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 2D 2L this season (6 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Motor Lublin, 1.50 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 36% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Motor Lublin 27% | Widzew Łódź 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 0.93 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.677 / defence 1.057 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.025 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.128. Motor Lublin's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Motor Lublin games / 45 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 28% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 43%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Motor Lublin 33% | Widzew Łódź 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 28% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Motor Lublin 0.93 / Widzew Łódź 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.677 / def 1.057 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.025 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Widzew Łódź xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź?
Motor Lublin 3 - 4 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 28% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Motor Lublin's attack at 0.68x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.02x) against Motor Lublin's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
28%
3.58
29%
3.44
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.15
1.22
Widzew Łódź xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.22 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Motor Lublin come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.45 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Motor Lublin's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Attack vs Defence
Motor Lublin are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.33 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Motor Lublin won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Motor Lublin
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź?
From 5 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-2 Motor Lublin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 33%, Widzew Łódź 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Motor Lublin and 33% for Widzew Łódź.
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Motor Lublin have failed to score in 50% of games; Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 67% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Motor Lublin vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 33% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Motor Lublin 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Motor Lublin 3-4 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 0.93 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.22 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.68 / defence 1.06 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 28% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 43%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 27%, Widzew Łódź 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.36 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.