Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 51%, yet in-form Wisla Plock provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock meet at Polsat Plus Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's home record at Polsat Plus Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games (1.89 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Wisla Plock arrive in superior form — a 0.79 PPG advantage (1.89 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Wisla Plock in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 56%.
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 56% versus Wisla Plock 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 67% | Wisla Plock 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.79 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.108 / defence 1.184 | Wisla Plock attack 0.837 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.197. Data: 44 Lechia Gdansk games / 9 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 51% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 25%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 4.00. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (1.89 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 70% | Wisla Plock 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 51% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.79 / Wisla Plock 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.108 / def 1.184 | Wisla Plock attack 0.837 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 51% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock?
Record (4 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.84x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.19
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.98
1.19
Wisla Plock xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
4%
24.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.19 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.22 scored and 0.67 conceded. Lechia Gdansk's scoring rate against Wisla Plock's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Wisla Plock away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.33 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 17 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 33%, Wisla Plock 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Lechia Gdansk and 33% for Wisla Plock.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 67% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 33% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.79 xG and Wisla Plock 1.19 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.11 / defence 1.18 against Wisla Plock attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 51% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 25%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 67%, Wisla Plock 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.