Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Cracovia Krakow to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1W 2D 3L at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cracovia Krakow — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 77% and Cracovia Krakow 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 54% | Cracovia Krakow 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.90 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.643 / defence 1.134 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.375 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.180. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cracovia Krakow have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Lechia Gdansk games / 47 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 18% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 60%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Cracovia Krakow 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 50% | Cracovia Krakow 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 18% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.90 / Cracovia Krakow 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.643 / def 1.134 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.375 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 18% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (4 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 2W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.64x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
18%
5.57
22%
4.45
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.74
1.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
5.57
18%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
3%
35.13
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.84 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 4D 7L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 8W 2D 3L from 13 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cracovia Krakow are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — Cracovia Krakow travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 2.15 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 0.83 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 50%, Cracovia Krakow 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Lechia Gdansk) and 67% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 33%; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Lechia Gdansk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.90 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.84 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.64 / defence 1.13 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.38 / defence 0.93, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 18% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 60%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 54%, Cracovia Krakow 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.