Korona Kielce 3-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Korona Kielce face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Korona Kielce at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Korona Kielce, 1.70 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Jagiellonia edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Korona Kielce 1–3 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 54% versus Jagiellonia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 36% | Jagiellonia 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Korona Kielce surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.10 xG and Jagiellonia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.908 / defence 1.010 | Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.244. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 63 games and Jagiellonia's last 63.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 34% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 37%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.92 | Draw 3.48 | Jagiellonia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 50% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 34% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Korona Kielce 1.10 / Jagiellonia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.908 / def 1.010 | Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Korona Kielce 3 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia part of?
Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 30) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 34% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (0.91) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.92x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 63 games and Jagiellonia's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.48
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.25
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.16 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 24D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.87 PPG from 63 outings (34W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 31 away games (13W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.02 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 63%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 17W 24D 22L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 34W 16D 13L in their last 63 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.48 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 4-1 Korona Kielce on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Korona Kielce
2
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Jagiellonia 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 52%, Jagiellonia 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Korona Kielce) and 61% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Korona Kielce's games and 68% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 61% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 84% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Jagiellonia 3-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.10 xG and Jagiellonia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 34% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 37%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 36%, Jagiellonia 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Korona Kielce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.