Jagiellonia 2-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Chorten Arena to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Jagiellonia — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 7W 2D 1L at Chorten Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chorten Arena.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jagiellonia, 1 for Slask Wroclaw and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 67% versus Slask Wroclaw 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 71% | Slask Wroclaw 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.252 / defence 1.055 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.730 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.213. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Jagiellonia games / 48 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 20% | Slask Wroclaw 16%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Slask Wroclaw 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 50% | Slask Wroclaw 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 20% | Slask Wroclaw 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 2.07 / Slask Wroclaw 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.252 / def 1.055 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.730 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Slask Wroclaw xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Jagiellonia 2 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 64% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (6 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 4 | Slask Wroclaw 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.93
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.01
0.93
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
49.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.93 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 28W 11D 9L from 48 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 14L across 48 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slask Wroclaw heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 16W 5D 3L from 24 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.27 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 28W 11D 9L in their last 48 games (1.98 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 15D 14L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.21 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 58%, Slask Wroclaw 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Jagiellonia) and 46% (Slask Wroclaw). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 38%; Slask Wroclaw in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jagiellonia's matches and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 2-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.93 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.25 / defence 1.05 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 20% | Slask Wroclaw 16%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 71%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.