Jagiellonia 4-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Stadion Miejski: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 1.60 (Raków Częstochowa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 3 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 0–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 70% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 60% | Raków Częstochowa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.11 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.397 / defence 0.690 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.138 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.246. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jagiellonia's defence rating of 0.690 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Jagiellonia games / 50 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 23% | Raków Częstochowa 15%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Raków Częstochowa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Raków Częstochowa 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 23% | Raków Częstochowa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Jagiellonia 2.11 / Raków Częstochowa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.397 / def 0.690 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.138 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Raków Częstochowa xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Jagiellonia 4 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 62% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (5 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.30
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.08
0.98
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
54.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.98 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 18W 18D 14L from 50 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 31W 11D 8L across 50 games — 2.08 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jagiellonia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 14W 5D 5L from 24 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.90 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 11D 8L in their last 50 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.96 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Raków Częstochowa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jagiellonia and 54% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 58% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jagiellonia's matches and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Raków Częstochowa 4-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.11 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.98 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.40 / defence 0.69 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.14 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 23% | Raków Częstochowa 15%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 60%, Raków Częstochowa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Jagiellonia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.