Jagiellonia 4-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 1.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Puszcza Niepołomice's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.01 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.061 / defence 1.020 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.969 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.023. Puszcza Niepołomice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Jagiellonia games / 1 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 60% | Draw 22% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 60% | Draw 22% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Jagiellonia 2.01 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.061 / def 1.020 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.969 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Jagiellonia 4 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 60% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.06) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.97x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.57
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.02
1.01
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
41.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.01 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Jagiellonia against 0.00 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 100% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jagiellonia's matches and 100% of Puszcza Niepołomice's.
Do Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Puszcza Niepołomice 4-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.01 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.01 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.97 / defence 1.33, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 60% | Draw 22% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 100%, Puszcza Niepołomice 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 0.00 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.