Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Arena Zabrze to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Arena Zabrze this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.70 PPG versus Raków Częstochowa's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Raków Częstochowa 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 67% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 62% | Raków Częstochowa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.23 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.003 / defence 1.281 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.871 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.183. Data: 21 Gornik Zabrze games / 21 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 39%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Raków Częstochowa 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Zabrze • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.23 / Raków Częstochowa 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.003 / def 1.281 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.871 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Arena Zabrze.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Arena Zabrze.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 34% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (1 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.00x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.71
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.55
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.32 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 4D 8L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (12W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.82 points per game from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.86 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.55 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 54%, Raków Częstochowa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gornik Zabrze) and 64% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Raków Częstochowa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 64% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Zabrze, Regular Season - 22, as Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.23 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 39%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 62%, Raków Częstochowa 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.