Arka Gdynia 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arka Gdynia at 39%, yet in-form Wisla Plock provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Wisla Plock travel to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni to take on Arka Gdynia. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 August 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 outings — a 0.83 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arka Gdynia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 5W 1D 0L from 6 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.67 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wisla Plock are 1.84 PPG ahead (2.67 vs 0.83), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Arka Gdynia trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Wisla Plock trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 50% versus Wisla Plock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Arka Gdynia 33% | Wisla Plock 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.38 xG and Wisla Plock 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.853 / defence 1.067 | Wisla Plock attack 0.953 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.229. Data: 6 Arka Gdynia games / 6 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 33%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arka Gdynia at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (2.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arka Gdynia 50% | Wisla Plock 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Arka Gdynia 1.38 / Wisla Plock 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 0.853 / def 1.067 | Wisla Plock attack 0.953 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Arka Gdynia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock?
Arka Gdynia 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 39% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arka Gdynia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock in?
Arka Gdynia (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-1D-0L in 6 | 2.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arka Gdynia's attack rating (0.85) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Arka Gdynia's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arka Gdynia Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.65
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.63
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.25 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arka Gdynia's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 0L across 6 games — 2.67 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 1.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arka Gdynia heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Arka Gdynia are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.67 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Wisla Plock in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 (2.67 PPG).
Have Arka Gdynia or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arka Gdynia have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Arka Gdynia
0
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock?
From 2 meetings on record, Arka Gdynia have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-3 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock?
Arka Gdynia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arka Gdynia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arka Gdynia 50%, Wisla Plock 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Arka Gdynia and 33% for Wisla Plock.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 50%; Arka Gdynia have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arka Gdynia play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arka Gdynia's recent matches and 50% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Arka Gdynia's recent games and 33% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arka Gdynia and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Arka Gdynia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arka Gdynia edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arka Gdynia beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.38 xG and Wisla Plock 1.25 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Wisla Plock attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 33%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 33%, Wisla Plock 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Arka Gdynia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arka Gdynia conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.