Arka Gdynia 1-4 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arka Gdynia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni to take on Arka Gdynia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Arka Gdynia — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arka Gdynia at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni this season: 5W 2D 0L from 7 home games — 2.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arka Gdynia at 1.30 PPG versus Raków Częstochowa's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Arka Gdynia in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 44% versus Raków Częstochowa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 50% | Raków Częstochowa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.42 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 1.009 / defence 0.902 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.160 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.230. Data: 16 Arka Gdynia games / 49 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 32%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Raków Częstochowa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arka Gdynia at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arka Gdynia 71% | Raków Częstochowa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Arka Gdynia 1.42 / Raków Częstochowa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 1.009 / def 0.902 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.160 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Arka Gdynia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Raków Częstochowa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Arka Gdynia 1 - 4 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 39% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arka Gdynia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa in?
Arka Gdynia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arka Gdynia's attack at 1.01x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Arka Gdynia's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arka Gdynia Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.46
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.71
1.29
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.29 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arka Gdynia come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 3D 8L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Arka Gdynia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (8W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Arka Gdynia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arka Gdynia's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Arka Gdynia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arka Gdynia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arka Gdynia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.44 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arka Gdynia at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Arka Gdynia's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arka Gdynia at home: 2.43 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arka Gdynia
0
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa?
From 2 meetings on record, Arka Gdynia have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arka Gdynia 71%, Raków Częstochowa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Arka Gdynia) and 57% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arka Gdynia play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Arka Gdynia's games and 57% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arka Gdynia vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Arka Gdynia's matches and 57% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Arka Gdynia and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Arka Gdynia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Arka Gdynia 1-4 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.42 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 32%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 50%, Raków Częstochowa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.