Arka Gdynia 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni to face Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 25 July 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Arka Gdynia (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Arka Gdynia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Radomiak Radom are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.36 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.032 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.262. Data: 1 Arka Gdynia games / 35 Radomiak Radom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 34% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 41%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jul 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 34% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Arka Gdynia 1.36 / Radomiak Radom 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.032 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 25 July 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom?
Arka Gdynia 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 34% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom in?
Arka Gdynia (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arka Gdynia's attack rating (0.86) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.03x) against Arka Gdynia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
34%
2.91
25%
4.01
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.85
1.50
Radomiak Radom xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.50 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arka Gdynia's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Radomiak Radom by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arka Gdynia heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Arka Gdynia are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 5.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Radomiak Radom's attacking output running into Arka Gdynia's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Arka Gdynia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arka Gdynia
1
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom?
From 2 meetings on record, Arka Gdynia have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arka Gdynia play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Arka Gdynia's recent matches and 100% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arka Gdynia vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Arka Gdynia's recent games and 100% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Arka Gdynia have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.36 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 34% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 41%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 0%, Radomiak Radom 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arka Gdynia scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom managed 1 against a 5.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.