Viking 3-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Bodo/Glimt.

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Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 6 August 2023 at 19:15 UK time.

Form

Viking (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Viking's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended Viking 1–5 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Viking — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 72% and Bodo/Glimt 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 63% | Bodo/Glimt 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Viking surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.85 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.348 / defence 1.108 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.743 / away 1.332. Viking carry an above-average attack rating of 1.348 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Viking's projected output down. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.515, which lifts their away xG to 2.24. Data: built from Viking's last 46 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 47.

Result probabilities: Viking 33% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 47%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.07 | Draw 4.97 | Bodo/Glimt 2.12. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (1.85 / 2.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 4.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 80% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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