Lillestrom 1-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 42%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lillestrom vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Lillestrom (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 7W 0D 3L at Åråsen Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 0.70 PPG clear of Lillestrom in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Viking in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Viking hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Viking — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 60% and Viking 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 62% | Viking 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.73 xG and Viking 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.217 / defence 1.058 | Viking attack 1.090 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.340. Data: 47 Lillestrom games / 47 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 42% | Draw 23% | Viking 35%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 90% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 42% | Draw 23% | Viking 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Lillestrom 1.73 / Viking 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.217 / def 1.058 | Viking attack 1.090 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.751 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Viking xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Viking kick off?
Lillestrom vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Lillestrom 1 - 3 Viking.
Where is Lillestrom vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Viking part of?
Lillestrom vs Viking is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 42% chance of winning, Viking a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lillestrom and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
Record (5 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 4W.
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.09x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
42%
2.36
23%
4.34
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.28
1.55
Viking xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.55 for Viking, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 25W 7D 15L from 47 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 16L across 47 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.55 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 14W 2D 7L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 9W 4D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.85 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 72%.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Viking in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 25W 7D 15L in their last 47 games (1.74 PPG), while Viking have gone 21W 10D 16L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Viking away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.91 PPG; Viking away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Viking?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Viking have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Lillestrom, 78% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Lillestrom and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lillestrom's games and 78% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lillestrom's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Lillestrom and Viking tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Viking in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Lillestrom 1-3 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.73 xG and Viking 1.55 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.22 / defence 1.06 against Viking attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 42% | Draw 23% | Viking 35%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 62%, Viking 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.74 PPG, Viking 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.