Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Molde (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stromsgodset face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Molde travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025, 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Molde have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Stromsgodset.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 1–4 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Stromsgodset trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Molde trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 47% versus Molde 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 51% | Molde 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 0.98 xG and Molde 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.689 / defence 1.405 | Molde attack 0.991 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.367. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Stromsgodset games / 49 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 18% | Draw 23% | Molde 59%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Molde 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Molde (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Stromsgodset 40% | Molde 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 18% | Draw 23% | Molde 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Stromsgodset 0.98 / Molde 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.689 / def 1.405 | Molde attack 0.991 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Molde (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Molde xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Molde kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Molde kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Stromsgodset 3 - 1 Molde.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Molde part of?
Stromsgodset vs Molde is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 18% chance of winning, Molde a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Record (9 meetings): Stromsgodset 2W | Draws 1 | Molde 6W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Molde (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.69x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
18%
5.44
23%
4.34
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.88
1.90
Molde xG
5.44
18%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
3%
36.50
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.90 for Molde, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 13W 9D 27L from 49 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 16L across 49 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 8W 4D 12L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 1.86 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 13W 9D 27L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while Molde have gone 23W 10D 16L in their last 49 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.17 PPG; Molde away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Molde in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Stromsgodset won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Molde specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Molde have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 46%, Molde 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stromsgodset) and 58% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Molde in 42%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 29% of games; Molde in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 42% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 58% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Molde tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Molde in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Molde.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Molde 3-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 0.98 xG and Molde 1.90 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Molde landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.69 / defence 1.41 against Molde attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 18% | Draw 23% | Molde 59%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 51%, Molde 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Molde (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.