Stromsgodset 1-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stromsgodset face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Molde travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Stromsgodset's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Molde have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Stromsgodset.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–4 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Stromsgodset trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Molde trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 44% versus Molde 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 37% | Molde 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.14 xG and Molde 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.920 / defence 0.845 | Molde attack 1.273 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Stromsgodset games / 59 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 31% | Draw 27% | Molde 42%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Molde 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 31% | Draw 27% | Molde 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stromsgodset 1.14 / Molde 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.920 / def 0.845 | Molde attack 1.273 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Molde (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Molde xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Molde kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Stromsgodset 1 - 0 Molde.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Molde part of?
Stromsgodset vs Molde is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 31% chance of winning, Molde a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stromsgodset and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Record (7 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Molde 5W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.92x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.72
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Molde xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.35 for Molde, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 22W 11D 26L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 16L across 59 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 14W 5D 10L from 29 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 13W 7D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.19 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Molde in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 22W 11D 26L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Molde have gone 30W 13D 16L in their last 59 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Molde away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.62 PPG; Molde away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Molde in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Stromsgodset won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Molde specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Molde have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 48%, Molde 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stromsgodset) and 66% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Molde in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 59% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 66% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Molde tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Molde in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Molde 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Molde 1-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.14 xG and Molde 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Molde landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Molde attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 31% | Draw 27% | Molde 42%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 37%, Molde 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.