Stromsgodset 0-3 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Fredrikstad at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stromsgodset at 1.40 PPG versus Fredrikstad's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 1, Fredrikstad 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fredrikstad in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 52% versus Fredrikstad 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 54% | Fredrikstad 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.23 xG and Fredrikstad 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.861 / defence 1.185 | Fredrikstad attack 0.796 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.366. Data: 54 Stromsgodset games / 54 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 35% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Fredrikstad 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 50% | Fredrikstad 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 35% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Stromsgodset 1.23 / Fredrikstad 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.861 / def 1.185 | Fredrikstad attack 0.796 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fredrikstad xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Stromsgodset 0 - 3 Fredrikstad.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad part of?
Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 35% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 2W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.55
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.52
1.29
Fredrikstad xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.29 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 10D 28L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.54 PPG from 54 outings (22W 17D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stromsgodset's home form reads 9W 5D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 10D 28L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 22W 17D 15L in their last 54 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.23 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fredrikstad go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Fredrikstad won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-3 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 54%, Fredrikstad 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stromsgodset) and 38% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 35%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 27% of games; Fredrikstad in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 42% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 38% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fredrikstad run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Stromsgodset 0-3 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.23 xG and Fredrikstad 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Fredrikstad attack 0.80 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 35% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 37%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 54%, Fredrikstad 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.